COP 28: results and considerations

COP 28, the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from December 6 to 17, 2023. It was the first COP to be hosted by an “oil-rich” country (a petrostate), led by an oil-producing head of state, and attended by an unprecedented number of fossil fuel lobbyists. It was decidedly one of the most controversial COPs in history, and the first to include the words “fossil fuels” in a United Nations climate agreement. 

Let’s look at some of the main outcomes and highlights of this, at least, unusual summit.

An agreement to phase out fossil fuels

A historic outcome of COP 28 was the adoption of an agreement to phase out fossil fuels, committing the parties to a “transition away from fossil fuels” in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, so as to achieve “net zero emissions by 205”. This is the first time such an agreement has been reached in 28 years of international climate negotiations, and it marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.

The agreement is part of the first “global stocktake” on how countries can accelerate action to achieve the goals of the historic Paris Agreement. The global stocktake is a periodic assessment of collective progress toward achieving the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, such as limiting global warming to below 2°C and continuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

However, many countries walked away from the frustrating talks due to the lack of a clear call to phase out fossil fuels within this decade and a “litany of loopholes” in the text that could allow the production and consumption of coal, oil, and gas. For example, some countries insisted on using terms such as “transition” or “transformation” instead of “phase out” or “phase-down,” while others pushed for exemptions for certain types of fossil fuels or sectors.

Despite these shortcomings, the agreement is seen as a significant step forward in aligning global climate action with the latest scientific findings and the urgency of the climate crisis.

A breakthrough on loss and damage financing

Another key outcome of COP 28 was the launch of a fund to pay for losses and damages caused by climate change. Losses and damages refer to the impacts of climate change that cannot be avoided or adapted to, such as extreme weather events, sea-level rise, biodiversity loss, and displacement.

Developing countries have long called for financial support to address losses and damages, but developed countries have resisted, fearing legal liability or compensation claims. At COP 28, after years of deadlock, the parties decided to establish a “Santiago Network on Loss and Damage Financing,” which will mobilize resources from public and private sources to support developing countries in addressing losses and damages.

The fund will start with an initial capitalization of $1.5 billion from developed countries and aim to reach $10 billion per year by 2025. The fund will also support capacity-building, knowledge sharing, and innovation in loss and damage.

The launch of the fund is considered a major breakthrough and a sign of solidarity and trust between developed and developing countries. However, some civil society groups have criticized the fund as insufficient and inadequate given the scale and urgency of loss and damage needs.

A disappointment on climate finance

While COP 28 made some progress on loss and damage financing, it disappointed expectations for overall “climate finance.” Climate finance refers to financial flows from developed countries to developing countries to help them reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) and adapt to the impacts of climate change (adaptation).

Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries committed to mobilizing $100 billion per year by 2020 for climate action in developing countries. However, this goal was not met, as only $79.6 billion was mobilized in 2019, according to a recent report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

At COP 28, developed countries were supposed to present a plan on how to mmaintain the $100 billion commitment and increase their support in the coming years. However, no such plan was agreed, as the parties failed to reach consensus on key issues such as the definition of climate finance, measuring progress, balancing mitigation and adaptation financing, increasing public finance, and stimulating private finance.

Developing countries were disappointed by the lack of new financial commitments and clarity from developed countries. They also expressed concern about the quality and effectiveness of climate finance, as well as its accessibility and predictability.

A focus on people, lives, and livelihoods

COP 28 also emphasized the importance of focusing on people, lives, and livelihoods in the context of climate action. This means ensuring that climate action is inclusive, equitable, just, and based on human rights, and that it addresses the needs and aspirations of the most vulnerable and marginalized groups, such as women, youth, Indigenous peoples, local communities, and workers.

Several COP 28 initiatives and events highlighted the role and contribution of these groups in promoting climate action, as well as the challenges and opportunities they face. For example, the “Gender Action Plan” was updated to strengthen women’s participation and leadership in the UNFCCC process and the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The “Climate Empowerment Action” was also renewed to promote education, training, public awareness, public participation, and public access to information on climate change.

In addition, COP 28 saw the launch of a “Just Transition Work Programme,” which will provide a platform for dialogue and cooperation between the parties and stakeholders on how to ensure a fair and inclusive transition to a low-carbon economy that creates decent jobs, protects workers’ rights, and promotes social protection. The work programme will also support the implementation of the “Solidarity and Just Transition Silesia Declaration,” adopted at COP 24 in 2018.

A wave of new international commitments (will they be kept?)

Beyond formal negotiations, COP 28 also saw a wave of new international commitments and initiatives from various sectors and actors, ranging from fossil fuels to renewable energy, from food systems to nature. Among the most significant commitments are:

- The “Global Methane Pledge,” which commits countries to reduce methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming and air pollution. More than 100 countries have joined the commitment, representing over 70% of global methane emissions.

- The “Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA),” which brings together countries committed to ending new licenses for oil and gas exploration and production and phasing out existing production in a just and equitable manner. The alliance was launched by Denmark and Costa Rica, and more than 20 countries have joined, including France, Ireland, New Zealand, and Spain.

- The “Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA),” which aims to accelerate the global transition away from coal-fired electricity generation. The alliance announced that more than 50 countries have committed to phasing out coal by 2030 for developed countries and by 2040 for developing countries. The alliance also welcomed new members, such as Japan, South Korea, Poland, and Chile.

- The “Global Cooling Pledge,” which calls for a rapid transition to efficient, climate-friendly, and affordable cooling solutions. Cooling is essential for human health, food security, and economic productivity, but it also consumes a lot of energy and emits greenhouse gases. More than 40 countries have joined the pledge, which aims to double the energy efficiency of cooling by 2030.

- The “Sharm El-Sheikh Declaration on Agriculture and Food Systems,” which recognizes the interconnections between climate change, biodiversity loss, and food security. The declaration commits countries to transforming their agricultural and food systems to make them more resilient, sustainable, and healthy. It also calls for strengthening cooperation and coordination between the UNFCCC, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

These are just some examples of the numerous commitments and initiatives that were announced or launched at COP 28. They demonstrate the growing momentum and diversity of climate action by various sectors and stakeholders. However, they must also be translated into concrete actions and policies that are aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Conclusion

COP 28 delivered mixed results. On the one hand, it produced some historic outcomes, such as the agreement to phase out fossil fuels and the loss and damage fund. On the other hand, it fell short on some key issues, such as climate finance and the ambition to phase out fossil fuels. It also faced some challenges related to the leadership of the United Arab Emirates, the influence of oil and gas, the crisis in Israel and Gaza, and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Overall, COP 28 showed that, despite the progress made in global climate action, there is still a lot of work to do to close the gap between what is needed and what is being done. The next COP, COP 29, will be held in Egypt in 2024. It will be an important opportunity to review and improve countries’ national climate plans, as well as to complete some of the issues left unresolved from COP 28.

As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said at the closing of COP 28: "We have made important strides—but we are still not doing enough, not enough, not fast enough."